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The Green Monday 2012 Predictions

3rd Jan 2012

Every era feels like a time of change to those involved, but the sense of impending change feels more acute this year. And if change is an opportunity, 2012 should be an exciting year for those who read the tea leaves correctly.

By our reckoning, we got 6/10 of our 2011 predictions correct - see here for our analysis.

Below are our 10 predictions for 2012. Given the link between sustainability and the economy, we start with the economic outlook as this gives context to all of our predictions.

Here goes, bad news first.

A bad year for:

	The economy. The Euro will partially unravel, but in an orderly fashion and avoiding a full scale global banking crisis. UK GDP to fall by more than 3% during 2012, but that does mean up to 97% of economic activity continues unabated.

	Carbon. After a bad year in 2011, carbon looks set to slip further down the agenda as a "nice to have" in a time of "need". We expect sustainability strategies based on carbon to get hit in 2012, but that M&S will buck the trend by going carbon neutral in 2012.

	Social unrest. With youth unemployment at 22% and rising, and increasing number of protests, strikes and riots will spread across Europe. Enabled by social media, this will put pressure on the corporate community to demonstrate "social purpose". Utilities and banks must be able to respond.

	The Green Investment Bank. Despite the valiant efforts of many, this is now swimming against so many tides that we predict it will get shelved while the government focuses on the Euro.

A good year for:

	Energy efficiency. Successful energy efficiency programmes from BT, M&S and others are so well documented that even the laggards are starting to move. Expect growth in energy management roles, technologies with paybacks of less than 3 years and financing solutions.

	Electric vehicles. The Nissan leaf is still to prove a point, with 20,000 sold against its target of 1.6m by 2016. But the 2012 "EV spring" will see Renault, Mitsubishi, Ford and Honda enter the EV market. Nissan will sell more than 50,000 in 2012 and the market to start to take off.

	Measuring the profit from sustainability. The Green Strategy 2011 survey showed only 16% of companies measure the profit generated by their sustainability programme. M&S showed that identifying a £70m contribution in 2010 won over all stakeholders - expect others to follow.

	Sharing. It might sound a little "hippy", but the notion of ownership will be challenged in 2012 as being financially and environmentally inefficient. The term "collaborative consumption" will increasingly crop up, and will create opportunities for well-versed companies.

	Supply chain management. In economically challenging times the focus switches from growth to efficiency. Companies will increasingly collaborate with their suppliers to reduce resource use, particularly energy and water. PepsiCo, Siemens and others will demonstrate the opportunities.

	President Obama. The Democrats will win the 2012 US election, and regain control of congress. And this time he will turn it into a more positive policy stance, giving climate negotiations a much needed shot in the arm after an uninspiring Rio Earth Summit.

The notion we must all hold on to is that there is a financially and environmentally sustainable economy trying to claw its way out of an old and failing one. And that's always going to be a messy process. But organisations that develop resource efficient business models, and embrace transparency and social purpose, will outperform during the tough times and come out smiling in sunshine at the other end.

It is no more than Schumpeter's "perennial gale of creative destruction" at work.